Day: September 5, 2008

Club Penguin Day in the market – Had a (really) bad day

Health Warning: Bearish view follows.

Big reshuffle lately in the global power game of market caps. The persistent record volumes on the LSE and others are just the beginning but market value is headed south.

For global banks and tech stocks in particular it is really remarkable (see table). I hope investors can hold on to their smile for the duration of this blog while we look at an emerging group of analysis that looks at banks, financial technology firms and the leading exchanges (the latter are co-dependent on both of the former).

Only a year ago Disney paid something like $700m (snatched from under Sony’s nose) for the online kids massively parallel game called Club Penguin. Going from my kid’s passion for Club Penguin, I think the Daniel Powter song ‘Had a bad day‘ is one of their theme songs and the animated cartoon penguins sometimes dance to in the game. It was a good move in hindsight, they are looking like one of the few left standing making money (with 12m+ users).

Disney is now worth just a tad more than Morgan Stanley and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).

Well today was one of those really bad days for the market and it is hard not to argue this week is another turning point to show just how bad things are going to get.

Table courtesy of google finance portfolios…check the % fall just for today (remember this is after an already pretty bad few months) and the latest market caps on the right hand side.

I have been saying for nearly a year now that this is going to get really ugly and we could be in for the same sort of mess our parents and grandparents saw in 1929 and today’s falls add more fuel to the fire. This time I think the slide will be long and slow, call it a boiling frog market, and the investors are the ones who will pay.

We are mainly cash right now and just taking exceptional opportunities, will be interesting to see if that pays or hurts. Meanwhile the pressure keeps building to the downside for example here down under in AU we just managed a huge national deficit after seemingly unending surpluses (digging stuff out of the ground is easy money or so we thought) and have had a complete government change in our biggest state mainly due to power and the economy not to mention 66% of the state in drought.

This is just the beginning, find a safe bank now (if there are any left).